US Economy Already in a Recession?
According to Morgan Stanley:
The US has entered its first full-blown economic recession in 16 years, according to investment bank Merrill Lynch.
Merrill, itself one of Wall Street’s biggest casualties of the sub-prime crisis, is the first major bank to declare that a recession in the world’s biggest economy is now underway.
David Rosenberg, the bank’s chief North American economist, argues that a weakening employment picture and declining retail sales signal the economy has tipped into its first month of recession.
It goes without saying that these guys have access to vast amounts information that I don’t, but since when does a definition of a recession take a month for fruition? Wikipedia quote:
In macroeconomics, a recession is a decline in any country’s gross domestic product (GDP), or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive quarters of a year.
Sounds like Morgan Stanley are combining forecasting and current data to make a prediction sound like an economic certainty. Do you really trust the same people whom were the most exposed in the sub-prime debacle?
