This Guy Thinks You Should buy

I just read an interesting and admittedly, enlightening interview on Don Hayes, an investment officer who thinks the market can only go one way — up. Although this type of thinking may sound like suicide in our current market context, rest assured, this Don Hayes is betting the forces of gravity are working in a Northern fashion, and not nailing himself to anything solid like most other people. His indicators are similar to what I trade with, except his are probably more scaled towards the bigger picture. I personally attempt to catch small trends and fluctuations in the market using institutional buying as a sign of what to expect. His ideas are somewhat similar. Money quote:

How do you measure psychology?

You could see the nervousness and fear Friday, Nov. 9, in the CBOE’s VIX, a measure of volatility. We also looked at what we call the Smart Money Index, which examines the last hour of cumulative trading in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, considered to be the “smart” money because there is no real news reported and it gives a clearer view of how investors are thinking, compared with the more emotional moves made in the first 30 minutes of trading in the day by “dumb money.” On Nov. 9, the smart money was buying and the dumb money was not.

Irregardless of whether you think he’s right or wrong, he has a calculated, logically backed system with the audacity to go through with what it’s indicating. Next time you hear another news hack ‘analyst’ predicting doom, gloom, and worse, just take a deep breath, step back, and remember contrarian’s do exist in any market conditions. Whenever anyone tries to convince me the sub-prime issues are going to result in a world wide economic recession, I simply reply — “What, the US real estate market is the world economy now?”. I have yet to hear a good comeback to my snipe.